USMNT World Cup Daily, Day 4

My World Cup predictions, four days to USA-Wales & a new scientific poll reveals 46% of U.S. soccer fans say migrant worker abuses in Qatar have lessened their interest in this World Cup.

For some reason there’s a giant spider at the World Cup media center (Photo by Grant Wahl)

DOHA, Qatar — I can’t tell you how many American soccer fans I have run into who say they’re conflicted about following this World Cup due to Qatar’s human rights record toward migrant workers, women and the LGBTQ community, and a new scientific poll conducted by Seton Hall University confirms it.

In a nationally representative poll conducted in the U.S. this week of 1,533 adults across the country, 46% of American soccer fans said reports of migrant worker abuse in Qatar have lessened their interest in this World Cup. (The poll has a margin of error of plus- or minus-2.5%.)

In other poll findings, 54% of all Americans polled believe the World Cup should not be taking place in Qatar. And by better than 2 to 1, respondents:

• believe that FIFA is not ethically centered

• agree with the official French position of not using large public TV screens to view this World Cup

• agree with Denmark’s announcement it would wear essentially anonymous jerseys rather than be identified with this World Cup

Also, by more than 3 to 1, respondents support Amnesty International’s call for Qatar and FIFA to create a fund for migrant workers and their families who have suffered injuries or death.

This is the elephant in the room around the Qatar World Cup, and the poll confirms that large numbers of Americans care about the topic. It also makes the decision by Fox Sports, a World Cup broadcaster, to refuse to address Qatar’s human rights record a continuing embarrassment as it pockets millions of dollars from the Qatari government (through Qatar Airways) as a sponsor.

(I’ll be clear about this: I think Fox is going to do a good job on the soccer side of the broadcasts. The talent there is terrific in the studio and on game calls. The decisions about aligning with the Qatari government and not covering human rights come from a much higher pay grade at the producer level, and it’s connected to incoming money from the people they’re covering, and that’s what is inexcusable.)

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MY WORLD CUP PREDICTIONS

I put a lot of thought into these, including some significant surprises. So let’s dive in:

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Group A

1. NETHERLANDS

2. SENEGAL

3. QATAR

4. ECUADOR

With Sadio Mané now officially out of the tournament due to injury, a lot of people are going to write off Senegal. But there’s a reason Senegal is the African champion, and it’s about more than Mané. I think Aliou Cissé’s team will stick together and find a way to get by the host country for the second spot. Look for the Dutch to win the group under Louis van Gaal, who’s a terrific tournament coach.

Group B

1. ENGLAND

2. USA

3. WALES

4. IRAN

It’s almost a toss-up on the betting lines between the U.S. and Wales to advance from Group B, but I think the U.S.’s talent and young energy will show through when the two teams meet on Monday and the Yanks will win the game. That would set up the U.S. nicely for at least six points, since I sense that Iran’s off-the-field turmoil with protests against the government will have an influence here too. This England team is good enough to win the tournament, by the way.

Group C

1. ARGENTINA

2. MEXICO

3. SAUDI ARABIA

4. POLAND

The vibes around this Mexico team have not been great heading into the World Cup, but I think there’s enough there to be better than Poland and Saudi Arabia, even if there isn’t to compete with Argentina.

Group D

1. DENMARK

2. AUSTRALIA

3. FRANCE

4. TUNISIA

I know what you’re saying: How can you have France, the defending champion, being eliminated from a relatively easy group? To which I say: Every four years something inexplicable happens, and that’s often the case with the defending champion. Four of the past five reigning World Cup winners have gone out in the group stage of the subsequent tournament. I think there are actual reasons for this, which include retaining the coach of the World Cup-winning team, who tends to stick with older players for too long until they’re punished in the next World Cup. Remember defending champ Germany finishing last in its group in 2018? Nobody thought that would happen. And it’s true that France has had a lot of injuries heading into this tournament. The beneficiary is Australia, which advances to the knockout rounds.

Group E

1. GERMANY

2. SPAIN

3. JAPAN

4. COSTA RICA

Poor Japan. It’s a terrific team that would be expected to advance in most World Cups, but that’s a lot harder when you draw Germany (the 2014 champion) and Spain (the 2010 champion) in your group.

Group F

1. BELGIUM

2. CANADA

3. CROATIA

4. MOROCCO

For me, the World Cup is a young person’s event. There’s just too much athleticism required these days, and the games come fast and furious. We’ll find out a lot about that maxim in this group. Belgium and Croatia were both semifinalists at the last World Cup, but they’re both older teams now, and I think one of them won’t advance from the group as a young and explosive Canada team makes its mark. For that to be the case, though, Canada will need a healthy Alphonso Davies.

Group G

1. BRAZIL

2. SWITZERLAND

3. CAMEROON

4. SERBIA

Switzerland is a terminally underrated team that will show that yet again in this group. That said, this is the best Brazil teams we’ve seen since it last won the World Cup in 2002, and Neymar seems to play on an even higher level with his national team than he does at club level.

Group H

1. URUGUAY

2. PORTUGAL

3. GHANA

4. SOUTH KOREA

I almost went with Ghana ahead of Portugal, but I decided to choose Portugal at the last second because Cristiano Ronaldo’s teammates have dealt with his me-first shenanigans before and thrived, and they can do it again here. Still, the class of the group is Uruguay, which likes to play the hits but also has a young and exciting generation led by Fede Valverde and Darwin Núñez.

Round of 16

• Netherlands beats USA

• Argentina beats Australia

• Germany beats Canada

• Brazil beats Portugal

• England beats Senegal

• Denmark beats Mexico

• Belgium beats Spain

• Uruguay beats Switzerland

This is a huge tournament for the big South American teams, Brazil and Argentina, who are two of the gambling favorites. The last time a South American team won the men’s World Cup was in 2002, when Brazil did it, and since then the gap has continued to grow between the top European teams and the rest of the world. European teams have won every World Cup since 2002, and four European teams made the semifinals in 2018. Exhibit A for the widening gap is Brazil 1, Germany 7 in the semifinals of World Cup 2014 in Brazil. That’s why I think it would be fascinating if Brazil and Germany meet in the quarterfinals here.

Quarterfinals

• Argentina beats Netherlands

• Brazil beats Germany

• Denmark beats England

• Belgium beats Uruguay

My dark horse team of this World Cup is Denmark. Masterfully coached by Kasper Hjulmand, the Danes have remarkable chemistry and just get results, whether it’s at the Euros or in World Cup qualifying. Plus they have the best story of the tournament in Christian Eriksen, the midfielder who went into cardiac arrest at the Euros. He survived, recovered and is now thriving again for Manchester United and for his national team.

Semifinals

• Argentina beats Brazil

• Belgium beats Denmark

Argentina-Brazil could be absolutely historic.

Final

• Argentina beats Belgium

Finally, finally, finally, Lionel Messi wins his first World Cup in his last opportunity, giving us every reason to anoint him the best player of all time. Messi has the best team around him that he has ever had at a World Cup (including in 2014), and the Argentines come into the tournament on a 35-game unbeaten streak. Messi will win the Golden Boot, while Kevin DeBruyne takes the Golden Ball as the tournament’s top player.

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THE USMNT’S DAY IN DOHA

Not much to report from the USMNT today:

• The U.S. had a training session in the evening against the club Al Gharafa. It wasn’t characterized as a friendly and was closed to the public.

• In the team’s podium press conference, Tyler Adams said: “We have no idea who the captain is going to be yet.” Coach Gregg Berhalter has said he would name one captain for the tournament and not rotate it among members of the team’s leadership council as he has done during qualifying. But let’s be honest: It would be crazy if the captain isn’t Adams.

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MY DAY

After spending the last four days here by myself in our four-bedroom house, one of my housemates finally arrived. Guillem Balagué was wearing one of his trademark floral shirts when he got here late this afternoon. And like all good Europeans, he promptly turned the air conditioning down in the living room. It was absolutely great to catch up with him as he checked out the friendly Spain was playing against Jordan. Next up to arrive in our house: Raphael Honigstein and James Horncastle!

Back at you tomorrow.

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